4月10日GMAT作文真題

為了更好幫大家備考GMAT，留學(xué)監(jiān)理網(wǎng)的老師來給大家分享一份論壇上面4月10日GMAT考場回顧。希望可以對大家有所幫助。

第一宗罪:無因果聯(lián)系

The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the reasoning is that because A occurred before B, the former event is responsible for the latter. (The author uses the positive correlation between A and B to establish causality. However, the fact that A coincides with B does not necessarily prove that A caused B.) But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps C is the cause of these events or perhaps B is caused by D.

第二宗罪 Insufficient-sample

The evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. One example is logically unsounded to establish a general conclusion (The statistics from only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends), unless it can be shown thatA1 is representative of all A. It is possible that.... In fact, in face of such limited evidence, the conclusion that B is completely unwarranted.

第三宗罪: 錯誤類比 (based on a false analogy )<橫向>

The argument rests on the assumption that A is analogous to B in all respects. This assumption is weak, since although there are points of comparison between A and B, there are much dissimilarity as well. For example, A..., however, B.... Thus, it is likely much more difficult for B to do....

第四宗罪 all things are equal<縱向>

The author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that.... The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. However, it is not clear in this argument

whether the current conditions at AA are the same as they used to be two years ago. Thus it is impossible to conclude that....

第五宗罪 Either-Or choice

The author assumes that AA and BB are mutually exclusive alternatives and there is no room for a middle ground. However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either-or choice. Common sense tells us that adjusting both AA and BB might produce better results.

第六宗罪 survey is doubtful

The poll cited by the author is too vague to be informative. The claim does not indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or when, where and how the poll was conducted. (Lacking information about the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to access the validity of the results. For example, if 200 persons were surveyed but only 2 responded, the conclusion that...would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out this kind of interpretations,). Until these questions are answered, the results of the survey are worthless as evidence for the conclusion.

第七宗罪 gratuitous assumption

The author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that.... However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. In fact, this is not necessarily the case. For example, it is more likely that.... Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibility.

1.三明治店

本月原始 一個在大學(xué)里賣三明治的，去年銷量不錯，然后他說準(zhǔn)備開三家新店，三家新店的manager也是自從他開店以來一直跟著他的三個人，所以這三個店一開，利潤就會triple。。。槽點挺多 考古 V1一個人（名字記不?。┰诔浅擎?zhèn)開了家Pita店，那個城鎮(zhèn)是個大學(xué)城，辣味的賣的好，收入翻了倍于是，店主打算在周圍的城鎮(zhèn)在開三家新店，并親自培訓(xùn)將負(fù)責(zé)的三名員工。他覺得新開的三家店會導(dǎo)致profit將會triple。 V2 作文是說George在一個叫S的地方開了一家三明治點， 賣的很好， S這個鎮(zhèn)有很多學(xué)生。因為店開的很成功，所以GEORGE決定在附近的town開三家新的店， 他會訓(xùn)練三個人開新店， 做一個spicy sandwiches,他認(rèn)為開3家新店能triple profits 考古原題 感謝GhostaNdrop The argument was about a paragraph from a restaurant business newsletter about small franchise restaurants. A small restaurant owner, George, opened a pita restaurant in a college town Sallon. His restaurant has been quite successful for the last 2 years. So he decided to open another 3 restaurants in nearby cities and towns. He also plans to promote his 3 employees who have been trained under him to be the managers of the new restaurants. He expects his profits will triple after all restaurants are opened. 參考思路 1. 因果關(guān)系：多開餐館跟利潤上升之間無必然關(guān)系。很可能現(xiàn)在有很多類似的競爭對手，快餐店的食品、服務(wù)和衛(wèi)生也必要考慮的因素。 2. 錯誤比較：在這賣的好其他地方不一定地點變化，是不是可以保證新開每家店會不會取得以往相同的利潤。注意，學(xué)校這個關(guān)鍵因素，學(xué)?？梢员ＷC一個地方充足的客源，但是其他地方?jīng)]有信息說明該地方有類似的客源。 3. 無根據(jù)假設(shè)：三個老員工未必能做經(jīng)理，他們可能是很好的廚師或是收銀員，但完全沒有管理經(jīng)驗，很可能管理失誤，犯下大錯，然后賠本關(guān)門，甚至把老店也賠進(jìn)去。 4.思路: (1)對比性不充分. 因為大學(xué)生的生活作息,可能偏愛這種快餐便捷又平價的小吃店, 周邊城市人口組成會不一樣. 比如以老年人為主, 或者富人居住區(qū), 就會少有顧客來吃pita. (2)員工提拔成為經(jīng)理,需要慎重.好的雇員不一定當(dāng)?shù)牧撕美习? (3)利潤漲三倍, 明顯缺乏數(shù)據(jù)和分析, 盲目樂觀oversimplify.

2.政府蓋樓

本月原始 作文是上個月關(guān)于過去十年4%rental units增長和94%的租房率，然后表明這個地方經(jīng)濟(jì)很好，外地人也要過來住什么的。所以讓公司財務(wù)總監(jiān)蓋兩個樓，這兩個樓就完全覆蓋4%，又由于需求肯定增長所以公司一定盈利。 攻擊點 1 過去增長不意外以后增長 所以需求不能保證 2 租房子不表明這個地方經(jīng)濟(jì)好吸引外地人 還是說需求不能保證 3 就算需求增長了 如果有其他公司也蓋房子 那么還是會有超額供給導(dǎo)致市場價格下降 4 蓋房子成本可能很高啊 不一定盈利啊 5 4% 94%怎么來的啊 是不是可信啊 考古 【1】 AWA是說一個房地產(chǎn)老總說city過去十年租房率每年增長4%，occupancy rate維持在92%，說明未來經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)增長并吸引大量外來人口。所以他決定明年公司建兩棟樓用來出租。單單這兩棟樓不考慮外來競爭者和別的建造商就能達(dá)到4%的增長，并且能保證房屋的occupancy rate，所以公司這個舉措將帶來巨大利潤。 【2】一道關(guān)于Rental Unit上升,occupation rate上升，然后決定要再建2個building complex的那道題 【3】 一個城市的出租房在過去10年增加了4 %的數(shù)量，但是居住率還是維持在92%這么高的水平，認(rèn)為將來租房需求強(qiáng)勁。一個地產(chǎn)公司因此決定在未來蓋兩棟大樓，這樣就能提升利潤。 【4】 一家地產(chǎn)公司（Rental Unit Company）的CEO給CFO寫的信： 本市的出租房（Rental Unit）總數(shù)量在過去10年都以每年4%的速度增長，而且occupancy rate一直都保持在92%，這可以說明本市在未來會經(jīng)濟(jì)更加繁榮，而且對于new residence的吸引力（Attractiveness）會更高。因此我決定明年要啟動建造兩棟新的appartment building來出租，這兩棟building能cover增長的那4%的份額，因此一定能夠給公司帶來更多的profit 思路比較容易找啦： 1. 過去10年的數(shù)據(jù)is limited whthin the time range in the past, 不能說明未來還會持續(xù) 2. 經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮以及對新居民的吸引力要看很多的因素，只通過租房數(shù)據(jù)來判斷顯然忽略了其他的因素 3. 新蓋兩棟房子把那4%的growth都占了，意味著一旦其他公司也新建，市場競爭就會很激烈，不一定能賺錢 4. profit的老生常談啦，要看revenue－cost的具體數(shù)字 參考思路 1.數(shù)據(jù)有效性：4%和90%的數(shù)據(jù)是哪里得出的，沒有提到其他任何可參考的東西。

2.錯誤因果：rental units 的增長和rental units的占有率并不代表經(jīng)濟(jì)就是發(fā)展迅速，房地產(chǎn)

市場繁榮。可能和房價等其他因素相關(guān)。 3.無根據(jù)假設(shè)：沒有提到建造buiding的cost等因素，無端假設(shè)說建造兩個buiding就可以填補4%的空缺。 4. profit的老生常談啦，要看revenue－cost的具體數(shù)字 5. 過去10年的數(shù)據(jù)is limited whthin the time range in the past, 不能說明未來還會持續(xù)

3.新開三家藥店

本月原始 （CARE94）H在A地做了研究后，建議在A新開三家藥店。K 擁有A地最大的顧客群，H認(rèn)為通過正在K的location附近開新店可以搶到K的顧客群，因為他們有大量的供應(yīng)，因而可以通過低價競爭成為行業(yè)領(lǐng)先者。 考古 V1是說一個做藥的公司想在一個城市去開店，那個城市已經(jīng)有一個老店了而且很受當(dāng)?shù)厝藲g迎，過去幾年也有幾個公司在當(dāng)?shù)亻_過藥店。為了與那個老店競爭，這個公司決定在那個老店開店的旁邊開店來吸引老店的longtime customers，這樣它在不久之后就能在當(dāng)?shù)氐乃幍曛谐蔀閘eading postion。 V2講A市的兩個制藥公司 - Holner's 和 Kirby Drug。 Kirby Drug擁有A市的最大客源并且顧客都是長期忠實的顧客。多年前KD第一間店開在市中心 幾年時間內(nèi)又在其他3個不同的地方開了不同的分店。Holner's的Vice President認(rèn)為Holner's應(yīng)該效仿KD的這個模式 把H打算開的分店都開在有KD分店的地方 （潛在信息: 有KD分店的地方就擁有大量客源）, 這樣KD的長期客戶們就會放棄KD而購買H的藥品 因為H的售價比KD的低很多 原因是H作為national brand可以從supplier那里以低價采購更多。Holner's認(rèn)為這個策略可以讓Holner's很快成為A市的藥店老大 這篇是考察reasoning 狗主覺得還是挺好答的 1）KD當(dāng)年選址開分店的地方是綜合了那些地方的各項因素 比如幾年前那些地方租金較低 人口特別是老齡化人口多 （老年人通常需要買更多的藥）等等， 但幾年前的情況不等于現(xiàn)在的情況。 現(xiàn)在的那些地方可能租金上漲，而A市里可能還有其他地方的老年人多過那三個地方。H選址開分店的時候不應(yīng)該只參照KD的分店地址 而應(yīng)該綜合評估 2）長期忠實于KD的客戶肯定是看重KD產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量 藥效 還有KD的服務(wù)等其他因素 價錢并不能作為單一決定性因素 而因為KD的藥品質(zhì)量等各方面都很好 顧客并不會介意KD的價錢高并且會繼續(xù)購買。 H的VP只因為H的價錢比KD的高就有信心把KD的顧客源都吸引過來是unreasonable的 參考思路 1. 錯誤類比：兩家雖然都是藥店，但是兩家藥店的影響因素并不一樣。K藥店是local store，而h藥店是連鎖的，如果將k藥店的strategy用到h藥店上未必會獲得居民的歡迎。

2. 另有他因：lower price on national brands不是決定藥店銷量的唯一因素。 3. 無端假設(shè)： h藥店計劃在k藥店的三個store附近新開三家，并且提供lower price on national brands， 但這個措施并不一定能吸引k藥店的longtime customer。

4.cookville factory

本月原始 上月cookville那篇，有原文。 考古 V1（by R_V）“Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.” V2 作文是那個Cookville工場的產(chǎn)量比別的工場多，然后建議說只要Cookville生產(chǎn)那種零件可以將全部費用降到最低。 考古原題 AWA題庫 The following appeared in a presentation by the chief production manager of a machine parts manufacturing company at a management meeting: “Our factory in Cookville is our most advanced and efficient. It is capable of producing ten drill bits for each dollar of production costs, whereas none of our other factories can produce more than seven drill bits per dollar of production costs. Therefore, we can reduce our overall drill bit production costs by devoting the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production. Since reducing the production costs of individual machine parts is the only way to achieve our larger goal of reducing our overall production costs, dedicating the Cookville factory entirely to drill bit production and shifting all other machine part production to our other factories will help us to attain that larger goal.” Discuss how well reasoned . . .etc. 參考思路

1. 方案置疑:although C produce more bits per dollar, the reason may be that C has high- skilled workers, total new and high- quality machines, or less amounts of orders thus entirely shifting is fallacious, the results may be that the workers may be too tired and have too much burden, the

machines would be worn out, and all this could contribute to the lowering of the productivity. 2. 充分必要條件:The only way to reduce costs is to reduce production costs: the management assumes without further more evidence that reducing the productions costs is the only way to enhance cost-effective production process: 可以 train workers , 引進(jìn) new technologies, 定期維修老舊設(shè)備,提高 management strategy.. 3. Gratuitous assumption:shifting the production of the other parts to other factories is the appropriate way to go 也許轉(zhuǎn)移制造之后 cargo and transporting fees would roar 因為 sporadically 分布的工廠可以及時供貨,集中在一個地方不利于供貨,而且 shifting 牽扯 到搬家的費用,都是 huge expense, may not weigh over the elevation of the productivity 4. Gratuitous assumption:Coikville factory entirely to drill bit production will reduce our overall drill bit production cost. Perhaps, there are only one or several skilled workers who are can product them drill bits for each dollar of production cost. And they have already reached their full potential. 5. 沒有考慮 production process as a whole。舉例:可能生產(chǎn)過程和裝配過程要聯(lián)系很密切, 如果把其他環(huán)節(jié)放到別的 factory 會出問題。

5.投資房產(chǎn)

本月原始 一個地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)的brochure 說房價過去五年一直在漲 股市在跌 因此投資房市是最好的選擇 而且買房后自己住還同時享受了投資 投資股市卻沒有同樣的享受。 考古 V1（by zz68）a real estate agent mentioned the below: "Over the last five years, the housing prices in our city have doubled. During the same time, the stock market has fallen. So now it is a good time for the city residents to buy houses as an investment. In additional, home owners can also live in the houses they bought and that can improve one's quality of life, whereas there is no such similar benefit if one buys stocks." V2一個城市的房管局之類的說，因為過去五年的平均房價漲了一倍但是股票平均價下降了所以預(yù)計未來五年也會是這樣的情況，而且如果買房子的話可以享受到使用房子的價值，這是投資股票不能帶來的。結(jié)論是，大家都應(yīng)該去投資房產(chǎn)。 答主的攻擊點是：平均不能真正反映房產(chǎn)和股票的價格情況；過去五年的情況并不能一定保證未來五年也是同樣；人們在買到房子后就會習(xí)慣擁有房子，不會持續(xù)感受到使用房子的快樂。

6.投放廣告

本月原始 作文：講的是一個叫啥Motor的公司要投放廣告，一個是在social networking websites上面，一個是advertisement on TV and radio。其中social networking websites，是做一個survey，說有90%的user說他們不會因為這樣的廣告就去買他們公司的產(chǎn)品。另一個方法advertisement on TV and radio是投放了這種廣告以后，sales rise 15%。于是得出結(jié)構(gòu)說應(yīng)該多講錢放在advertisement on TV and radio上，減少social networking websites上的投資。 考古 坐穩(wěn)：似曾相識，求考古。一家公司認(rèn)為online ads沒有 television ads and radio ads 有效（effective）。因為他們做了一個survey, 90%的 website users 表示他們不會因為網(wǎng)站上有某個產(chǎn)品的廣告而去買這個產(chǎn)品。過去一年里， 這家公司的online ads 的銷售額比TV 和radio ads的銷售額少。為了提高利潤，這家公司決定discontinue online ads, increase the investment in TV and radio ads。 樓主思路： 1. survey 的結(jié)果并不可靠。Websit eusers 不能代表所有customers 2.過去一年的情況不一定與未來情況一樣。你怎么就知道未來online ads銷售額比TV and radio ads少？ 3. Profit 取決于 revenue 和cost。 我們并不知道cost的情況。 V2：同JJ 13. 廣告投放 V3: motorcycle 做廣告，說是ads on social websites are not effective, ads on television and radio are much better. 舉了個例子，有一年在television和radio的做完廣告以后，sales增長了13%，所以television &radio的廣告有用。結(jié)論，為了最大化profit，我們要把放在website上的廣告budget都轉(zhuǎn)移到television radio的廣告上(by anqihuang0524) 古中古 V1 Argument：一個motorcycle manufacturing company的market analyst表示advertising on social networking websites has been inefficient. In a survey of ONE such website users, 他們說他們不會看了website上的廣告買產(chǎn)品。而advertising on television and radio(?) 更有用。公司在某個城市打television和radio廣告的那一年，sales of motorcycles rose 15%. In order to earn more PROFIT, 這個analyst認(rèn)為公司應(yīng)該discontinue advertising on social networking websites, 將這個的budget用在在television和radio的廣告上。 V2 變體 就是motorcycle那個，不過我這個有點變形，他說的是出現(xiàn)了一種新形勢的radio廣告，導(dǎo)致profit停止上升，題目里說是應(yīng)該少投入newspaper上的廣告，多做radio的廣告。 V3 Market researcher就網(wǎng)絡(luò)廣告的評估寫信給 head of advertisement department：

A survey on a website shows that no customers bought products because of these advertisement. On the other hand, in the past, advertisement on TV and radio boosted sales by over 15%. In

order to increase profitability, the advertisement department should allocate more funds on TV and radio, instead of on online social media. V4 the head of marketing department of motorcycle company have done a research on social networking websites. It is said that 90% of the people on one social networking website claim that the advertisement on the website will not lead them to buy specific product online. Also, another survey suggest that after the television and radio ads, there was 15% increase in sale. So it is reasonable to disregard the ads on social networking website and put more budget on the tel 參考思路 1. 可疑調(diào)查：一個survey of such website，沒有指出這個調(diào)查的任何其他情況，survey的methodology很可疑, 只有70%？的網(wǎng)站用戶不會去點擊那個小廣告從而sell specific product，這個survey的調(diào)查結(jié)果是否準(zhǔn)確；這個survey的調(diào)查結(jié)果是否準(zhǔn)確。 2. 因果關(guān)系-錯誤因果：70%的網(wǎng)站用戶不會去點擊那個小廣告從而sell specific product不代表廣告沒有效果，很可能那30%點擊廣告的人都是潛在客戶，并且絕大多數(shù)點擊廣告的人都會買他們的產(chǎn)品?！具@個是考古的思路，本月構(gòu)筑給的是90%，考試時看原題】 3. 因果關(guān)系-忽略他因：之前那一年提高了15%還是25%的sale不一定是在radio和television上做過廣告造成的，還可能是其他原因，比如那一年油價便宜導(dǎo)致很多人買車等。 4. 錯誤比較-時地全等：之前有一年就在radio和television上做過廣告并且效果很不錯不代表現(xiàn)在在radio和television上做廣告效果也不錯，很可能現(xiàn)在做廣告根本沒人關(guān)注。 5. sales的上升不代表利潤的上升，很可能expense早就花超了，就算是上升了，也有可能lower than that of other companies

7.Olympic foods

本月原始 The following appeared as part of an annual report sent to stockholders by Olympic Foods, a processor of frozen foods. “Over time, the costs of processing go down because as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient. In color film processing, for example, the cost of a 3-by-5-inch print fell from50 cents for five-day service in 1970 to 20 cents for one-day service in 1984.The same principle applies to the processing of food. And since Olympic Foods will soon celebrate its twenty-fifth birthday, we can expect that our long experience will enable us to minimize costs and thus maximize profits.” 參考思路 1. 錯誤類比：The food industry is not analogous to the color film industry. 食品行業(yè)與彩色膠片行業(yè)不能等同。

2. 因果關(guān)系——忽略他因：Other factors that may contribute to the cost decline of the printing cost should be considered and ruled out. 彩色膠片例子中的成本降低不一定是因為組織學(xué)習(xí)

增加效率，還可能是技術(shù)改進(jìn)、原料價格下降、福利增加激勵員工等。 3. 無根據(jù)假設(shè)：The conclusion of the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption that the company can minimize cost and maximize profit because the company has been conducted for 25 years. 因為 (1)不是有經(jīng)驗就可以節(jié)約成本 (2)不是cost下降profit就會增加，只有在銷量不減少或者增加的情況下才成立 參考范文 Citing facts drawn from the color-film processing industry that indicate a downward trend in the costs of film processing over a 24-year period, the author argues that Olympic Foods will likewise be able to minimize costs and thus maximize profits in the future. In support of this conclusion the author cites the general principle that “as organizations learn how to do things better, they become more efficient.” This principle, coupled with the fact that Olympic Foods has had 25 years of experience in the food processing industry leads to the author’s rosy prediction. This argument is unconvincing because it suffers from two critical flaws. First, the author’s forecast of minimal costs and maximum profits rests on the gratuitous assumption that Olympic Foods’ “l(fā)ong experience” has taught it how to do things better. There is, however, no guarantee that this is the case. Nor does the author cite any evidence to support this assumption. Just as likely, Olympic Foods has learned nothing from its 25 years in the food-processing business. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of increased efficiency is entirely unfounded. Second, it is highly doubtful that the facts drawn from the color-film processing industry are applicable to the food processing industry. Differences between the two industries clearly outweigh the similarities, thus making the analogy highly less than valid. For example, problems of spoilage, contamination, and timely transportation all affect the food industry but are virtually absent in the film-processing industry. Problems such as these might present insurmountable obstacles that prevent lowering food-processing costs in the future. As it stands the author’s argument is not compelling. To strengthen the conclusion that Olympic Foods will enjoy minimal costs and maximum profits in the future, the author would have to provide evidence that the company has learned how to do things better as a result of its 25 years of experience. Supporting examples drawn from industries more similar to the food-processing industry would further substantiate the author’s view.

8. citrus price

本月原始

講的是citrus growers inflate prices, because the price of lemons has been increasing in the past eleven years, but only one year was due to weather conditions. The conclusion is actions are needed to prevent citrus growers from continuing to increase prices of citrus. 考古原題 (OG13第91) The following is taken from an editorial in a local newspaper: "Over the past decade, the price per pound of citrus fruit has increased substantially. Eleven years ago, Megamart charged 15 cents a pound for lemons, but today it commonly charges over a dollar a pound. In only one of these last 11 years was the weather unfavorable for growing citrus crops. Evidently, then, citrus growers have been responsible for the excessive increase in the price of citrus fruit, and strict pricing regulations are needed to prevent them from continuing to inflate prices." Discuss how well reasoned ... etc. 參考思路 1. Causal oversimplification：天氣并不是唯一影響因素，比如環(huán)境保護(hù)，加工價格上升，人力成本上升，或者通貨膨脹，Monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions the growers’desire for increased profits. 2. 充分條件: Only way to combat increased price is through government intervention. 3. 無關(guān)假設(shè)：天氣好 果樹的產(chǎn)量一定高。因為種植柑橘的農(nóng)民已經(jīng)動用了可用的資源了，產(chǎn)量無法再多 4. 錯誤類別 or Hasty generalization：檸檬是不是可以橘類水果類比，或者說，檸檬有其特殊性，譬如檸檬都是進(jìn)口的，比較貴。 參考例文 In this editorial the author argues for the imposition of strict pricing regulations in order to deal with continued inflation of prices of citrus fruit. The need for such regulation is supported by the author’s contention that citrus growers have been unnecessarily raising prices of citrus fruit in the past. The evidence for this allegation is the fact that the price of lemons at Megamart has increased from 15 cents per pound to over a dollar a pound during the preceding 11-year period. The author maintains that this increase is unjustifiable because weather conditions have been favorable to citrus production in all but one of those years. This argument is flawed for several reasons. First and foremost, the author assumes that the only factor that influences the price of citrus fruit is the weather. Other factors such as monetary inflation, increased distribution and labor costs, or alterations in supply and demand conditions are completely ignored as possible sources for the increase. The charge that citrus growers have unnecessarily raised prices can be sustained only if these and other possible factors can be completely ruled out as contributing to the price increases. Since the author fails to address these factors, the recommendation calling for strict pricing regulations can be dismissed out of hand as frivolous.

Second, the author assumes that the only way to combat increased prices is through government intervention. In a free enterprise system many other means of affecting the pricing of goods are available. For example, boycotting a product and thereby influencing supply and demand

conditions of the commodity is an effective means of influencing the price of the product. In a free market economy the call for price regulation by the government should occur only when all other means to rectify the problem have been exhausted. In conclusion, the author’s argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument it would be necessary to show that the only factor influencing the price increases is the growers’ desire for increased profits.（333 words）

9.建gym

本月原始 作文：一個公司做了個research說去健身房的人身體都健康一些，所以要建一個well-equipped gym，這樣cost of health insurance降低了，還可以achieve town balanced budget 考古原題 The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager. “Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.” 參考思路 1. 可以調(diào)查：research的樣本容量、統(tǒng)計標(biāo)志都沒有說明，無法保證研究結(jié)果具有一定的參考性。 2. 無根據(jù)假設(shè)：不一定提供了gym員工就會去鍛煉，所以無法確保健康水平會提升。 3. 因果關(guān)系：(1) insuarnce針對的也許是emergency的情況，即使提高了健康水平也不能保證降低cost (2)不健康也許不是不運動導(dǎo)致的，也許那地方環(huán)境污染，水質(zhì)不好空氣不好等等。 參考范文 In this memo Saluda’s business manager recommends that the town provide a gym for its employees as a means of balancing the town’s budget. The manager reasons that since studies show that people who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often than those who don’t exercise, Saluda could save approximately 50% on the cost of its group health insurance coverage by providing its employees with a well-equipped gym. The savings on insurance would balance the town’s budget. The manager’s argument is unconvincing because it rests on several unsupported and dubious assumptions.

Firstly, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees will exercise regularly if a well-equipped facility is provided for them. This assumption is questionable since the mere fact that a gym is made available for employee use is no guarantee that they will avail themselves of it at all, let alone on a regular basis. Secondly, the manager assumes that Saluda’s employees do not exercise regularly. Once again, the manager offers no support for this crucial assumption. Obviously, if all of Sauda’s employees already engage in daily exercise, the hospitalization rate will be unaffected by equipping an exercise facility and no savings will be realized on the group health insurance. Thirdly, the manager assumes that there is a direct relation between the hospitalization rate for employees and the cost of their group health insurance such that a reduction in the hospitalization rate will result in a corresponding reduction in the cost of insurance. While this may turn out to be true, the manager has failed to offer any evidence for this claim. Finally, the manager assumes that the cost of building a well-equipped exercise facility will not negate the savings realized on the group health insurance. Until evidence has been provided to show that this is not the case, the manager’s plan is unacceptable. In conclusion, the business manager’s proposal to provide an exercise facility as a means of balancing Saluda’s budget is not convincing. To strengthen the argument, evidence would have to be provided for each of the assumptions listed in the previous analysis.

10.咖啡店裁員

本月原始一個什么商店的profits下降了，但是鑒于sales一直很好，所以這家商店就想要cut costs：通過每家門店lay off 10個 employees來實現(xiàn)。還有它的主要定位客戶是wealthy people，比較注重customer experiences。 然后第二個措施是和一家Cafe合作咖啡還是什么業(yè)務(wù)，理由是這家咖啡店吸引的客戶是同一個類型的，所以應(yīng)該能是profits上升。最后還提到了這家商店做了一個recent survey用來支持自己的決定。 我攻擊的三點： 1減少員工人數(shù)會降低服務(wù)質(zhì)量導(dǎo)致顧客流失。另有他因。 2 cost并不是利潤下降的唯一原因。時空全等的錯誤。inflation和economic environment不好也可能。 3 survey的validity值得懷疑。可疑調(diào)查的錯誤。

11.航空公司減少航線

本月原始 作文：講了一個P航空公司利潤下降，雖然去年整個石油價格上升導(dǎo)致燃油成本上升，但其他航空公司也面臨同樣的問題可他們的利潤并沒有下降，而去年P(guān)航空公司新開通了一些航線到5個地方，因此肯定是新開通的航線導(dǎo)致P航空公司利潤下降，因此得出結(jié)論航空公司應(yīng)該取消這些航線。 考古 V1: AWA：說一個airline的analyst 發(fā)郵件給CEO說， 油價漲了不少，咱們成本提高了，去年的profit少了。不過呢，其他類似的很多航空公司也面臨同樣的油價，但有些公司利潤提高了。這個analyst覺得， 應(yīng)該是去年我們新加的幾個addition的航線導(dǎo)致了profit降低。所以為了提升今年的profit，我們要把這些新加的航線取消。(by Scos) V2: 坐穩(wěn):一家航空公司利潤下降，分析師說，一個原因是是汽油漲價，一個原因是新買了5架飛機(jī)。后來說汽油漲價沒有引起其他飛機(jī)利潤下滑，反而有飛機(jī)利潤上升了，所以該公司利潤下滑的原因是新增的5架飛機(jī)。所以分析師認(rèn)為，如果要阻止利潤的下滑就要減少那新增的飛機(jī)。V3: 航班減少那個。幾經(jīng)上有。 V4: 作文：P Airline的一個business analyst給CEO寫email說咱公司去年的profit drop了20%+啊！寶寶很擔(dān)心咱公司發(fā)展啊！今年年初咱還expand operation開了5個新航線！at the begining of the year油價還蹭蹭的漲，咱們fuel expenditure也蹭蹭的漲！但這并不是重點！其他competitor在這種情況下還increase profit了呢！所以問題一定出在這新加的幾個小婊砸里面！so我們要斬草除根！eliminate這些新航線以后咱profit肯定蹭蹭的漲！ 這樣的business analyst是怎么被錄取的我真心是不懂了＝。＝正在找工作的我表示快開了這哥們兒換我上吧?。。?lt;--一道題而已你在激動什么） 邏輯漏洞大的補不上，so大家就帶著不屑的圍笑寫寫就好了：）(By angelacheung) 疑似考古 This is a letter written by a business analyst sending to the CEO of the company.An Airline company has been through profit decrase. Recently the oil price has increase, but since other airplane company continue improving profit when oil price increase. To improve profit, the company have to cut its newly added flight routes。 Provincia Airline's profit decreased last year, analyst concluded: 1. oil price increase;2. new flights were added.Since other airlines also faced roaring oilprice, the reason why profits dropped down was the new flights.New flights should be elimated. 參考思路 1. 充分必要條件：flight expansion 是 profit 減少的唯一條件？也有可能是乘客減少。 2. 錯誤類比：其他公司 increase their profitability 不一定就是減少number of flight，也許是他們的服務(wù)更好，顧客更喜歡選擇他們公司。 3. 無根據(jù)假設(shè)：Decrease flight expansion一定會使 profit上升？雖然減少航班數(shù)量，可以減少overall cost，但是 revenue from these flights 也是同樣減少。

12.明星代言

本月原始 一名ceo說：在5年前他們找一位知名運動員來參加他們的advertising campaign結(jié)果有30%increase in sales，但是他們的銷售已經(jīng)兩年沒有增長了，他們的market research顯示他們的主要客戶是中年大叔。所以他打算找最流行的年輕愛豆來參加宣傳，來開拓年輕人市場 考古 V1. Alpha cologne這個項目的Marketing Manager 一些提高銷售量的建議：Alpha 這個項目在過去4年里享受了30%的銷售增長，其廣告靠的是運動員代言人。市場調(diào)查現(xiàn)實其消費群體主要是中年人及老年人，但在過去兩年銷售額沒有明顯的提升。為了提升銷售額，應(yīng)該擴(kuò)大消費群體至年輕人。市場部經(jīng)理提議應(yīng)該雇傭流行音樂巨星D...Cleaver作為Alpha這個項目新的代言人，并把目標(biāo)群體從傳統(tǒng)的中老年變?yōu)樾鲁钡哪贻p人。這樣銷售額可能就會增長了，因為每一個角落的年輕人都會知道這個項目。 V2. Company's cologne has experienced significant sales increase of 30% annually in the first four years of its launch. The company uses advertising campaign with professional sports stars and research found that most customers are middle-aged men. Cologne sale slowed down in recent years and CEO believes that they need to get younger people to use the cologne and he will hire Justin Bieber as their new spokesperson to achieve this. 參考思路 1. 因果關(guān)系：代言人和銷量上升。也許香水本身的定位就是中年男性，比如味道或者價位，換代言人并不會產(chǎn)生多少改變。銷量不變可能是其他很多原因造成的，比如economic recession等等。 2. 時地全等：過去用代言人這招管用，不代表將來還是有用，也許其他很多競爭者都用這招了，last two years銷量不變不代表以后銷量也不變。 3. 無根據(jù)假設(shè)：歌星一定能吸引年輕人。沒有證據(jù)支持這種說法，年輕的明星并不代表就能吸引到年輕男人，比如可能一般男生關(guān)注明星比較少，或者在男生中其實運動員更受歡迎，換了還不如不換。

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